Estimation of computer waste quantities using forecasting techniques

Abstract

Technology changes rapidly over years providing continuously more options for computer alternatives and making life easier for economic, intra-relation or any other transactions. However, the introduced new technology “pushes” old Information and Communication Technology (ICT) products to non-use. E-waste is defined as the quantities of ICT products which are not in use and is bivariate function of the sold quantities, and the probability that specific computers quantity will be regarded as obsolete. In this paper, an e-waste generation estimation and forecasting model is presented. In this study, the regions of Western and Eastern Europe, Asia/Pacific, Japan/Australia/New Zealand, North and South America were examined. Furthermore, cumulative computer sales were retrieved for selected countries of the regions in order to compute obsolete computers quantities. In order to provide robust results for the forecasted quantities, a selection of forecasting models, namely (i) Bass, (ii) Gompertz, (iii) Logistic, (iv) Trend model, (v) Level model, (vi) ARMA, and (vii) Exponential Smoothing were applied, depicting that model which would provide better results in terms of minimum error indices for the in-sample estimation. As new technology does not diffuse in all the regions of the world with the same speed due to different socio-economic factors, the lifespan distribution, which provides the probability of a certain quantity of computers to be considered as obsolete, is not adequately modeled in the literature. The time horizon for the forecasted quantities is 2014-2030, while the results show a very sharp increase to USA and United Kingdom due to the fact of decreasing computers lifespan and increasing sales.