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Title: Predicting post-war US recessions: A probit modelling approach
Authors: Alexiou, Constantinos
Trachanas, Emmanouil
Type: Article
Subjects: FRASCATI::Social sciences::Economics and Business::Economics
Keywords: US recessions
Probit models
Issue Date: 2020
Source: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics
Volume: 54
First Page: 210
Last Page: 219
Abstract: This paper investigates the factors associated with the occurrences of US recessions over the period 1963Q1 to 2018Q2 using multivariate probit models. The evidence suggests that the probability of a recession decreases with higher profitability, as implied by the proponents of the Marxian tradition. Equally significant are the results that relate to manufacturing activity, investment, and inflation. The theoretical argument however, of those who regard the burgeoning growth of private credit as a factor triggering recessions, is not supported by our findings. Finally, interest rates, Tobin's Q, and labour's share of income are not statistically significant, hence implying that the likelihood of these being closely associated with US economic recessions is rather slim.
ISSN: 0954-349X
Other Identifiers: 10.1016/j.strueco.2020.04.009
Appears in Collections:Department of Accounting & Finance

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