Are candidate countries converging with the EU in terms of the Copenhagen political criteria?

Abstract

The Copenhagen criteria for EU accession are the essential preconditions that candidate countries must satisfy to be deemed eligible for membership. In line with the strand of the literature that focuses on candidate countries’ convergence with the EU, the paper examines whether converge with the EU in terms of the Copenhagen political criteria can be established empirically for candidate and potential-candidate countries. Currently, the candidate country status is granted to Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo are recognised by the EU as potential candidate countries. In addition to the candidate and potential candidate countries, we include in the convergence tests the six countries of the Eastern Partnership EU policy: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine. Using unit root tests, convergence is examined in terms of two indices drawn from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project: the Liberal democracy and the Civil liberties indices. The findings reported herein, are not uniform and on the whole offer only scant evidence in favour of the convergence hypothesis. For some of the candidate and potential candidate countries convergence is established, while for others the results do not point to such a process.